Abstract: This paper seeks to trace and analyze the major determinants that govern the future political system and state structure in Iraq. In parallel, the paper endeavors to articulate the main issues and dilemmas pertinent to its topic. Forecasts are advanced as to the future prospects of the political system and state in Iraq and a number of possible ramifications for the insecurity and stability of the Gulf region are carefully explored.

Setting out from the realities unraveled by the war against and occupation of Iraq and out of a close analysis of prevalent conditions in this war-torn country, the paper seeks to shed light on the major factors likely to rule the future political system in post-Saddam Iraq as well as put forth the prerequisite conditions necessary for reviving state institutions.

While the paper offers various probable and predictable scenarios, it emphasizes the undeniable reality that Iraq today stands at a critical historical turning-point. It could either chart its way towards real independence, political stability, economic development and democracy-building; or, it could slide into the quagmire of domestic strife and civil wars, which might induce the utter implosion of the state.

To be sure, precluding a worst-case scenario from unfolding entails edifying a platform on which the different Iraqi political forces could consensually formulate a sustainable political formula for the political future of Iraq. Arab states, for their part, need to move along the lines of a well-devised strategy capable of pre-empting the worst-case scenario from materializing.